The first full week of 2013 market data looks a lot like most of 2012 did. But let’s go beyond the obvious. Consider this: Americans formed substantially more new households in 2012 than we built, which is partly responsible for the ongoing declines in active listings. Our population continues to expand from both natural reproduction and in-migration. But builders and lenders lacked the confidence and risk appetite to build in larger volumes. Unlike our sluggish jobs recovery, this imbalance actually stands to further fuel our fledgling housing recovery. If only all those new households could secure adequate employment, we’d be off to the races. In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending January 12: For the month of December: Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.From The Skinny.
With 2012 in the books, we’re starting to see some 2013 activity trickle in. Watch for continuations of last year’s trends: less inventory, strong buyer activity and firmer prices. It’s hard to believe spring is just around the corner, but would-be spring sellers are noticing the changes that have taken place. It’s a much less scary time to sell a home. Foreclosure activity will also be a key metric to watch. For the current cycle, here’s what the data shows. In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending January 5: For the month of December: Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.From The Skinny.
Decreased supply, strong demand and higher prices are among the encouraging developments in 2012 that make the case for continued recovery in 2013. Consumer purchase demand increased organically, absent any government incentives. As the active supply of homes for sale fell to 10-year lows, absorption rates improved to levels also not seen since 2003. Multi-decade low interest rates and record housing affordability resulted in a 16.9 percent increase in home sales for the 13-county metro.
2012 by the Numbers
• Sellers listed 65,914 new homes on the market, a modest 4.3 percent decrease from 2011 and a 10-year low.
• Buyers purchased 48,641 homes, up 16.9 percent from 2011 and the highest figure since 2006 (783 units shy).
• Inventory levels dropped 31.8 percent from 2011 to 11,875 units, the lowest level in 10 years.
• Months Supply of Inventory dropped 42.2 percent to 2.9 months.
• The Median Sales Price of closed sales was up, rising 11.9 percent to $167,900.
• Cumulative Days on Market was down 20.6 percent to 117 days, on average.
• Lender-mediated properties made up a smaller share of overall activity
• 34.6 percent of all New Listings were lender-mediated (either foreclosures or short sales), down from 41.9 percent in 2011 and 42.6 percent in 2010
• 37.3 percent of all Inventory was lender-mediated, down from 44.4 percent in 2011 and 47.4 percent in 2010
• 39.7 percent of all Closed Sales were lender-mediated, down from 50.0 percent in 2011 and 47.9 percent in 2010
The results are mostly in, and the evidence is overwhelming. Housing not only outperformed most other sectors of the economy, but for the first time in half a decade, there was meaningful market recovery in 2012. For 2013, a few things seem likely. Expect interest rates to remain low and rents to rise, which will continue to drive buyer activity. Sellers should return to the marketplace in light of the improvements. Prices should remain firm and show moderate to strong gains. Foreclosure activity and job growth remain wildcards, but momentum is heading in the right direction.
In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending December 29:
- New Listings decreased 40.1% to 358
- Pending Sales decreased 12.6% to 442
- Inventory decreased 30.0% to 12,916
For the month of November:
- Median Sales Price increased 16.4% to $172,200
- Days on Market decreased 26.5% to 103
- Percent of Original List Price Received increased 3.6% to 94.2%
- Months Supply of Inventory decreased 38.6% to 3.5
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.From The Skinny.
While you’re eating better and exercising more, also resolve to better understand the inner workings of your housing market. Data does not have to be daunting. Just from the existing trends, it’s safe to expect to see more homes selling in less time for closer to list price. It also looks like the single-family detached segment may recover faster than the condo-townhouse attached segment. It would be wise to watch foreclosure activity to see whether there will be fewer low-priced sales in 2013. Many patterns emerge if you look in the right places. In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending December 22: For the month of November: Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report.From The Skinny.